By The Ortega Group
There’s a lecture that changes how you see everything. For our team, it came during a Global Economics class at Strathmore, when the lecturer delivered what seemed like a simple closing statement: “If we speak of food security, we are speaking largely of grains and cereals.”
Then came the gut punch: “Population growth has outstripped cereal productivity growth.”
Let that sink in. We’re not just talking about a gap—we’re talking about a widening chasm between how many mouths we need to feed and how much grain we can actually produce per hectare.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s start with wheat, because the figures are sobering. In 2025, Uganda consumed 750,000 metric tonnes of wheat. Kenya? A staggering 3,150,000 metric tonnes. But here’s the kicker—the majority of this is imported. Both countries are still struggling to crack the local wheat production puzzle. The quest for a high-performing variety that can thrive in East African conditions continues.
A disclaimer: We tend to view East Africa through the lens of Kenya and Uganda—the two nations we believe hold the East African Community dream alive.
It’s not impossible, though. The breweries proved that with barley. They cracked the code through concerted effort between stakeholders, the National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO), and the business community. But wheat? We’re still searching.
Currently, a tonne of wheat costs about USD 270-300 landed at the Port of Mombasa. Now think ahead—five years, ten years. What happens when populations double? What happens when import costs spiral further? Is there hope in consolidation? Could an East African Grain Company be the answer?
Storage: The Invisible Crisis
But production is only part of the equation. East Africa is yet to achieve food security through storage. We need more silos. And let’s be clear—a silo isn’t just a tank or some corrugated steel structure. A proper silo is technology: fumigation systems, aeration, ventilation to manage the grain within. It means investing in new drying facilities.
Take maize, for example. We don’t dry it right. The result? Uganda deals with a serious aflatoxin issue.
For those unfamiliar, aflatoxin is a dangerous chemical excreted by certain fungi that grow on the germ of maize. It’s carcinogenic, it’s toxic, and it’s entirely preventable. The solution? Harvest right. Dry right. Store right. It’s that simple—and that complex.
The Milling Problem
Then we get to processing. Who is milling our grain? Are they consistent with quality? Take a walk through Kisenyi, where many low-scale millers operate, and you’ll be shocked. Ideally, grain should be cleaned before milling. That process? Often non-existent.
But the problem runs deeper than dirty mills. There’s a dangerous fallacy among Ugandans that Grade 1 maize is the one that’s pure white. It’s a massive perception problem. Because our Ugandan posho—our staple—lacks nutrients. It’s just starch. You have very few producers of what you’d call real maize flour, with the right fiber content, the right fat content, the right nutritional profile.
And this problem compounds when you realize that most kids in schools across Uganda are being fed this nutrient-poor posho. Cognition issues arise. Development suffers. As a country that prides itself on food abundance and variety, we ought to take food—real, nutritious food—as the serious issue it is.
What Needs to Happen
The path forward requires coordinated action across the entire value chain:
Production: Continued research into high-yielding, climate-appropriate grain varieties. The barley success story proves it’s possible.
Post-Harvest: Investment in proper drying facilities and modern storage infrastructure. Silos that actually work, with the technology to prevent aflatoxin and other contamination.
Processing: Standards and enforcement around milling practices. Cleaning before milling shouldn’t be optional.
Education: Changing consumer perceptions around what quality grain actually looks like—and what it should contain nutritionally.
Regional Cooperation: Exploring consolidation opportunities. An East African approach to grain security, perhaps through a regional grain company, could provide the scale and coordination needed to address these challenges.
The Bottom Line
Population growth isn’t slowing down. Climate change is making agriculture more challenging, not easier. Import dependency leaves us vulnerable to global price shocks and supply chain disruptions.
The question isn’t whether East Africa can achieve grain security—it’s whether we’re willing to make the investments and changes necessary to get there. Because right now, we’re feeding our children starch and calling it nutrition. We’re importing what we could grow. We’re losing grain to poor storage that we desperately need.
Food security starts with grains. And grains start with getting the basics right: better seeds, proper drying, real storage, clean milling, and actual nutrition.
The infrastructure is within reach. The knowledge exists. What we need now is the political will, the private sector investment, and the consumer awareness to make it happen.
Because five years from now, ten years from now, this problem will only be harder to solve. And by then, it might be too late.